DIGITAL ENGINEERING - Civilian Behavior Conceptual Models for Wargaming

Navy SBIR 22.1 - Topic N221-001
MCSC - Marine Corps Systems Command
Opens: January 12, 2022 - Closes: February 10, 2022 (12:00pm est)

N221-001 TITLE: DIGITAL ENGINEERING - Civilian Behavior Conceptual Models for Wargaming

OUSD (R&E) MODERNIZATION PRIORITY: Networked C3

TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Information Systems

OBJECTIVE: Develop Civilian Pattern of Life models, sufficient to withstand review board scrutiny to support model verification, validation, and accreditation, as required. Focus on developing and implementing the models referenced herein, not on the underlying mechanics of the Program Manager Wargaming Capability (PM WGC) materiel solution simulation framework.

DESCRIPTION: This SBIR topic addresses two parametrics of interest for future inclusion in the Marine Corps Wargaming and Analysis Center (MCWAC), both related to modeling civilian populations. In the table below, the two major parametrics considered are "Civilian Pattern of Life" and "Civilian Populations." The specific conceptual model requirements are listed for each parametric.

ID

Parametric

Parametric Description

Conceptual Model Requirements

Info1

Civilian pattern of life (traffic patterns on the air, land, and sea)

Basic needs (food, water, shelter); basic economic behaviors (work locations, work activities); basic religious behaviors (worship times, locations, behaviors); basic reactions to military activities (bombs, blue forces presence, red forces presence); etc.

Identify geographic locations of homes, places of business, schools, religious activities, and social activities.

Info2

Represent opening hours for places of business, schools, religious activities, and social activities.

Info3

Represent statistical demographics based on age, gender, and social role.

Info4

Represent aggregate daily civilian location based on geographic locations, opening hours, and statistical demographics.

Info5

Identify recurring, large-scale activities impacting civilian activities.

Info6

Simulate changes to daily civilian location based on recurring, large-scale activities.

Info7

Identify anomalous circumstances impacting daily civilian activities.

Info8

Simulate changes to daily civilian location based on anomalous circumstances.

Info9

Identify aggregate daily land vehicle traffic.

Info10

Identify aggregate daily foot traffic.

Info13

Identify aggregate daily civilian resource requirements

Info16

Simulate daily civilian movements between locations based on LOCE CoD requirements.

Info17

Identify minimum daily civilian resource requirements.

Info18

Simulate individual civilian daily traffic based on geographic locations, opening hours, statistical demographics, and all forms of daily traffic.

Info19

Simulate changes to individual daily traffic based on recurring, large-scale activities.

Info20

Simulate changes to individual daily traffic based on anomalous circumstances impacting daily civilian activities.

Info22

Civil populations have atmospherics (culture, society, economic, technology, and density); personal intent and perceptions; and human dynamics for both domestic and foreign groups. The collection affects the political and military environments based upon the knowledge and perceptions of the collection.

This is just the representation of civilian representations. There is a parallel effort to look at the data and validity of the data.

Identify political parties, religions (sects), families, social / cultural organizations, professional organizations, and prominent figures with which individuals may have affiliations.

Info23

Identify sentiments, positions / beliefs, and goals associated with all affiliations.

Info24

Represent civilian affiliations in the aggregate based on age, gender, and social role.

Info25

Simulate changes in sentiments, positions / beliefs, and goals associated with all affiliations based on changes in the physical environment.

Info26

Simulate changes in sentiments, positions / beliefs, and goals associated with all affiliations based on changes in the social, political, economic, and cultural environment.

Some examples under the above headings include, but are not limited to:

  • Model civil infrastructure networks for Food, Water, Sewage, Power, Fuel, Communications.
  • Model key civil infrastructure facilities to include religious centers, medical treatment, civil supply, law enforcement.
  • Model displacement of civilians due to military activity (or disasters) that causes them to require shelter, medical attention, and food.
  • Model the relationship between various civil factions including level of violence.
  • Model incidents of violence (fully automated). Military action (or lack of) can suppress these incidents.
  • Model the positive or negative "influence" of one faction versus another, a key metric for Stability and Support Operations (SASO).

Full satisfaction of each conceptual model requirement is the end goal; however, partial solutions will be considered. This topic specifically focuses on developing the mathematical, algorithmic, and data aspects of the conceptual models. The mechanism by which these conceptual models would be implemented within the MCWAC is not the focus. Documentation of the conceptual models with Cameo/SysML is desirable, but not necessarily a strict requirement, if another representation is more suitable [Ref 2].

PHASE I: Develop concepts for an improved representation of civilian populations in wargaming Modeling and Simulation (M&S) that meets the requirements described above. Demonstrate the feasibility of the concepts in meeting Marine Corps needs and establish that the concepts can be developed into a useful product for the Marine Corps. Feasibility will be established by evaluation of the plan of attack for the development effort including data availability. Provide a Phase II development plan with performance goals and key technical milestones, and that will address technical risk reduction.

PHASE II: Develop prototype conceptual models to be evaluated to determine its capability in meeting the performance goals defined in the Phase II development plan and the Marine Corps requirements for civilian populations M&S. System performance will be demonstrated through prototype evaluation over the required range of parameters. Evaluation results will be used to refine the prototype into an initial design that will meet Marine Corps requirements. Prepare a Phase III development plan to transition the technology to Marine Corps use.

PHASE III DUAL USE APPLICATIONS: Support the Marine Corps in transitioning the technology for Marine Corps use. Develop civilian population conceptual model implementations for evaluation to determine their effectiveness in an operationally relevant environment within the MCWAC. Support the Marine Corps for M&S Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) to certify and qualify the system for Marine Corps use.

The conceptual models described herein are not only a high priority within the Marine Corps [Ref 1], but are equally applicable across the Services, to support not only wargaming, but also analysis, training, and experimentation. Successfully developed conceptual models would likely be of great interest across these communities. Outside DoD, marketing firms would be a natural customer, looking to understand patterns of civilian behavior from which to develop market segmentation strategies and ultimately advertisement campaigns.

REFERENCES:

  1. "Commandantís Planning Guidance, 38th Commandant of the Marine Corps, 2019." https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Publications/Commandant's%20Planning%20Guidance_2019.pdf?ver=2019-07-17-090732-937.
  2. "Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process." IEEE 1730-2010, January 2011. https://www.sisostds.org/StandardsActivities/SupportGroups/DSEEPDMAOPSG-DistributedSimulationEngineerin.aspx.

KEYWORDS: Wargaming; Modeling and Simulation; M&S; Civilian Pattern of Life; Conceptual Model; Marine Corps Wargaming and Analysis Center; MCWAC; Program Manager Wargaming Capability; PM WGC; Information modeling

** TOPIC NOTICE **

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